The Year of the Fire Horse, More Government Shutdowns, and How to Keep Your Growth Engine Running

First, a quick level set, because if I don’t explain this part, it either sounds mystical or like I’ve lost my mind (don’t you dare nod your head).

In the Lunar calendar, each year is tied to an animal and an element. The Horse represents movement, stamina, independence, and forward motion. Fire adds urgency and intensity. Put them together and you get a year that rewards momentum and punishes hesitation.

This isn’t about horoscopes or “manifesting abundance,” although that’s nice too! It’s a lens. Just like fiscal years, election cycles, or budget seasons, it’s a way to think about timing, energy, and behavior. And honestly, it lines up uncomfortably well with what I see play out in business every time things get uncertain.

Which brings us to now.

Why the Fire Horse Actually Matters in GovCon Right Now

Every time shutdown chatter starts, the same thing happens. Firms slow down. BD activity gets quieter. Capture work gets pushed. People start saying things like, “Let’s wait and see.”

That feels cautious. It’s not. It’s how momentum dies.

The Fire Horse year is a bad year to sit on your hands. Not because the market is easy. Because hesitation compounds faster than risk does.

Government markets are already slow in a good year. If you only move when everything feels stable, you’re always late.

Strategy isn’t a Deck. It’s What You Keep Doing When it’s Uncomfortable.

Most “growth strategies” work great on paper. Fewer survive real-world conditions like funding delays, shifting priorities, or a shutdown.

If your strategy only works when RFPs are flowing and awards are on time, it’s not a strategy. It’s wishful thinking.

Here’s a simple gut check:

• Do you know which accounts or pursuits actually matter this year?
• Could you cut your list in half and still feel confident about your direction?

If the answer is no, uncertainty will paralyze you.

The Fire Horse doesn’t reward scattered energy. It rewards clear commitment.

Momentum Comes From Decisions, Not Busy Calendars

This is where I see teams fool themselves.

They confuse activity with progress. Lots of meetings. Lots of outreach. Lots of conferences. Lots of plans. Very little movement.

Momentum in BD comes from decisions. Who are we focusing on? Why? What’s the next smart move here?

If a shutdown happens, activity will slow whether you like it or not. That’s normal. What shouldn’t slow is decision-making.

If your team can’t clearly articulate where each priority account is headed, that’s not a market problem. That’s an execution problem.

Shutdowns Don’t Kill Pipelines. Neglect Does.

Here’s another uncomfortable truth.

When the government slows down, relationship-building doesn’t stop. Internal conversations don’t stop. Planning doesn’t stop. It just moves behind the curtain.

The firms that come out ahead after a shutdown are usually the ones who used the quiet to:

• Strengthen relationships instead of chasing RFPs
• Confirm value instead of reacting to requirements
• Get smarter about risk instead of pretending it doesn’t exist

If you disappear when things go quiet, you’re not being respectful. You’re being forgettable.

Keep the Engine Warm, Even if You’re Not Flooring it 

The Fire Horse isn’t about sprinting until you burn out. It’s about sustained forward motion.

That means even during uncertainty, you keep some basic rhythms

• Regular touchpoints with key accounts
• Ongoing partner conversations
• Internal capture check-ins
• Tight alignment between BD, marketing, and proposals

You don’t need heroics. You just need consistency.

The Real Point

The reason I like the Fire Horse as a metaphor this year is simple.

It’s a reminder that growth doesn’t pause just because the market feels weird. It shifts.

If your growth strategy and BD execution are solid, a shutdown is an adjustment. If they’re fragile, it’s a full stop.

This year rewards firms who keep moving with intention, even when conditions aren’t ideal.

Not louder. Not faster. Just deliberate and steady.

That’s how you keep momentum… and turn it into wins.